The Pandemic of 2009
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
T.S. Eliot
Breaking news suggests signs of a possible pandemic of swine flu. With the relentless news of wars and rumors of wars, could it be that mankind will succumb to an invisible terror-- a malignant microscobe? Maybe. But the data needs to become more robust before anyone can come to any kind of conclusion. I recall during the Gerald Ford years in 1975 and 1976, there was mounting hysteria to vaccinate everyone because of a small outbreak of swine flu. In reaction to the vaccine, about 500 people developed Guillain-Barre syndrome and more than 25 people died. I was never vaccinated, but the memory of my grandfather who died during the 1918 pandemic weighed on me.
Here is a paragraph from my geneology of that time.
At just this time, the United States was about to be hit by the greatest natural disaster in its history. In a ten month period, this catastrophe would claim the lives of more than a half million people in this country and up to fifty million lives worldwide. In India alone, twelve million people would perish. Incubated in the trenches of Verdun and Flanders, the so-called Spanish Flu attacked with staggering virulence. Schools, churches, and factories were decimated. In South Dakota, the influenza would infect a member of an Indian tribe. Tribal members would chant around the body through the night. Within a few days, everyone in the tribe would be dead. The virus attacked the strongest, and most people that died were between the ages of 21 and 29. By the fall of 1918, the death rate in major cities was up by 1000 percent and coffins were stacked on sidewalks. But, with the first frost of winter, the flu finally subsided, leaving behind empty homes and playgrounds and a ghostly lullaby:
I once had a bird named Enza,
I opened the window and in flew Enza.
Labels: pandemic
posted by My Mall and News at
2:44 PM
2 Comments:
Understand that although some 675,000 people died in the US in the 1918/19 Influenza Pandemic. This accounted for only 0.6% of the population of over 100 million. Worldwide it was worse with a total death toll of 50 to 100 million. Native populations (Island, Eskimo, American, African) suffered the worst of all - 20 to 90% of the total populations died which varied from area to area. Western Samoa – 20% death, American Samoa – 0%, Eskimo – 70-90% . More than 20 million are thought to have died in India/Southeast Asia. 3 – 6% of Africa perished.
But, in the US - overall, you had a 99.4% chance of living through it, and even a 98% chance of survival if you caught the virus. But still, 675,000 deaths (above the normal fatalities) is a lot of death. Over half the fatalities were 21 to 35 years of age. Unheard of before or after this event -- Why? A very virulent form of the influenza virus and a series of unfortunate situations. What was understood or came to be understood? - Being in crowds – bad, being in the hospital – bad, coughing on others – bad, not resting – bad, good care – good, getting rest – good, being at home – better (if there was care). Unfortunately, there was a huge shortage of doctors and nurses due to the War. Unfortunately, there was massive overcrowding of military encampments due to the War. Unfortunately, there was a lack of preparedness on the part of the Government, well, because they were the Government.
Some of this was understood, much of it was not. Medicine was just emerging into the Scientific Age. It had found virus, but couldn’t find this one. It could treat and prevent some disease, but could not treat nor prevent this one. There were no “magic bullets”, antibiotics against the secondary bacterial onslaughts that devastated the weak and helpless victims of the influenza virus. There was no true understanding that the virus was shedding and infecting others up to 24 hours before a victim felt sick. Nor how the virus transmitted by air and by touch. When doctors made recommendations to the military about not crowding the encampments, they were largely ignored and thousands died. When medical scientists directly appealed to President Wilson to stop crowding soldiers onto transport ships, since the War was winding down, they were rebuffed and thousands more died. In Philadelphia, when doctors warned to cancel a War Bond parade, organizers gathered the crowds anyway and 10’s of thousands died.
What does this mean for today’s world? What percentage of the world has good access to antibiotics and antiviral drugs? Is our health care system well prepared for a Mass Casualty situation? How many ventilators are on standby above the normal flu season surge, much less a pandemic? Are we less crowded? If the virus spins up to the super-virulent levels of 1918, will we be able to stop it with our better science and understanding? Can we depend on our government and the governments of the world to work in coordinated, team-work like fashion to stop such a stealth killer? Are we less dependent or more dependent on the supply chain for groceries and basic services? Will we do what is personally necessary to prepare and meet such a challenge? Is hoping so enough?
Signature for the above
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home